UPDATE: 2:30pm
According to article 10.3 section b in the current CBA, Nashville CAN add on a no trade clause/no movement clause to Weber's deal. Why on Earth they would do that after watching Columbus give away Nash is beyond me, but the option is there. There is speculation that the Predators could move Weber now to a team for a trade that they would be happy taking. When Weber signed the mammoth deal, I don't think he expected Nashville to match. Updates to come.
1:22pm:
The Nashville Predators have MATCHED the offer sheet to Shea Weber. Weber's 14 year, $110 million contract will be his deal with the Predators. Nashville will have to pay Weber in the terms of the deal which means he will be given his $26 million bonus in the next calendar year.
Look for Philadelphia and other teams to now shift their focus to Anaheim Ducks forward Bobby Ryan, free agents Shane Doan and Alex Semin. More to come.
The news was broken late Wednesday night by Darren Dreger that the Philadelphia Flyers had signed Shea Weber to an offer sheet. This offer sheet was a 14 year, $110 million contract that makes Suter's and Parise's contracts look somewhat reasonable.
The reported structure for the deal:
- $68 million = bonus money in first six years
- $14 million in each of first four years
- $12 million in years five and six
- $6 million for years seven, eight, nine and ten
- $3 million in year 11
- $1 million in each of last three years
TSN has reported that there were trade offers in place for Weber by numerous teams (New York, Detroit, Philadelphia, San Jose, and possibly other teams according to Dreger) but the Flyers grew tired of waiting on Predators GM, David Poile, to make a decision. As a result, Shea Weber could be on the move to Philadelphia. Now that Weber has accepted the offer, the proverbial ball is in Nashville's court.
Will they match the offer or let Weber walk?
Analysis after the jump
Some would say to match the offer right away and lock up the face of the franchise for another 14 years. By doing so, Nashville would keep Rinne and Weber locked up for the foreseeable future (Seven years together to be more precise).
The first option Nashville has is simple: Match the offer.
By matching the offer sheet, Nashville retains their captain for 14 years. Simple as that. Would they be paying their captain much more money than they would like? Absolutely. If the reports by Darren Dreger are accurate (which they normally are), the deal in place from Philadelphia could pay Weber $26 million in one calendar year. TWENTY SIX MILLION DOLLARS in one calender year. Philadelphia GM Paul Holmgrem is a smart man but a an aggressive man as well. By making this kind of offer, he knows very well how difficult of a decision it will be for Predators management.
Nashville does not have the budget to pull off a move like that and hang on to Weber for the full 14 years which brings us to the next option...
The second option Nashville has is to sign him and trade him:
Under the current CBA and regulations by the NHL, should the Predators match the offer, they must wait one year before trading Weber. In that time they could hope to start a bidding war and trade Weber to the best offer after one year.
Why is this solution not as simple as it sounds? The first reason is that one of the prime targets to trade Weber would be eliminated. By waiting one year, the Predators would be unable to trade him at the NHL Trade Deadline where they could fetch a nice return to a team looking to add Weber. Weber's interest is the variable. It became obvious last summer when he signed a one year, $7.5 million contract that he was not sold on remaining with the Preds long term.
The next factor was Nashville's elimination from the playoffs. Poile did a great job gearing up his team for a strong push to the Stanley Cup but the team fell short. While normally a self-imposed budget team, Nashville upped their spending and made the necessary moves to beef up their lineup going into the post season by adding names like Kostitsyn, Gill, Radulov, and Gaustad.
The bitter loss to the Phoenix Coyotes in the playoffs followed by partner Ryan Suter's departure for Minnesota, it became clear that Weber was leaning towards a change of scenery.
What this means is that Weber does not want to stay with Nashville. He wants out. If Nashville hangs on to him things could get ugly. Weber could ask for a trade, fans would rip apart Weber and even management for signing him even though they knew he wants out, etc. Signing Weber is just a bad idea for Nashville but it is still entirely possible. Stranger things have happened.
The next option for Nashville is to not match the offer sheet.
Let's take a look at the potential compensation:
Should Nashville allow Weber to go to Philly, they would receive four 1st round picks. Making this move the Flyers prove that they are desperate for a Cup and will do what it takes to get there. By adding Weber to their lineup this becomes a team hoping to have late first round picks for the next four years. That is the price the Flyers are willing to pay but is that something that would entice the Predators enough to allow Weber to walk?
Taking the draft picks from the Flyers would allow Nashville to piece together a nice retool. Without Weber and Suter in their lineup I would not label them a playoff team. They could package the draft picks to move up in the Draft or package the picks for a roster player. They have plenty of options with that kind of return. I would imagine that they would be more inclined to walk away and take four 1st round picks than the other reported compensation.
There could be variations to this theory as hockey insiders have been tweeting all morning about past contracts signed like this but the teams work out a trade to reacquire some draft picks.
This theory makes sense for both sides as Philadelphia would probably like to hang on to some of their draft picks and can also use players to clear cap space for Weber. With no current names being tossed around, some of Philadelphia's young core could be on the move (Read, Couturier, Voracek, etc.) should Philly prefer their draft picks.
The latest speculation surrounding the offer sheet has some websites saying Nashville will NOT match the offer but make a trade with Philadelphia to return two of the four 1st round picks for roster players.
Other websites say that Nashville WILL match the deal.
In no way, shape or form is this going to be an easy decision for Poile and the Predators. They have options but the clock is ticking.
Thanks for reading!
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