NEW from Tape to Tape: Contract Wars is a new feature where we analyze contracts between similar players with similar output and decide who we would rather have on our team with their current price tag.
Time to put your General Manager caps on and think about your hockey team. Who would you rather have?
Analysis after the jump...
Erik Karlsson:
Contract: 7 years, $45 million (avg of $6.5)
Age: 22
2009-2010 Stats: 60GP - 5G -21A -26P
2010-2011 Stats: 75GP - 13G - 32A - 45P
2011-2012 Stats: 81GP - 19G - 59A - 78P
Coming off a dominating season, Eirk Karlsson was a force this year setting career highs in every category while re-writing the Ottawa Senators' record book.
His rookie year (2009-2010) was very average. Karlsson tallied 26 points (5 goals 21 assists) in 60 games played while playing under defense first coach Cory Clouston. In 2010-2011, Karlsson improved his points and games played totals by playing 75 games and registering 45 points (13 goals 32 assists) but an awful plus/minus (-30) gave people doubts about his defensive abilities.
This past season was Karlsson's big break out year where he played in 81 games and contributed 19 goals and 59 assists for 78 points in 81 games. Not only did he lead the league in scoring by a defenseman, his closest competition was a whopping 25 points behind him.
The supposed "knock" on Karlsson is that his offense sacrifices defense and that he is not sound defensively in his own end. This theory has been debunked as the young Swede has developed his defensive game under coach Paul MacLean. MacLean (who last worked with a certain Swedish defenseman in Detroit named Lidstrom...) has worked closely with Karlsson and his defensive game has improved dramatically. His plus/minus took a huge jump from -30 to +16. Karlsson will never be a defense specialist but he is more than capable of holding his own in the defensive end of the ice.
As he is not a big player (size wise: 6'0 ft, 180 lbs) Karlsson uses his patented "squeeze" along the boards to strip players of the puck.He also is extremely good with his stick and uses it to his advantage. While he may not play the most short handed time on the team, it is not because of his inability to do so. It is the coach using Karlsson to his strengths...which is offense.
With the offensive season Karlsson was having, he was considered in the running for the Norris Trophy but was not expected to win with the likes of Shea Weber and Zdeno Chara leading the charge for the defense award. That all changed at the NHL awards when Karlsson walked away winning the Norris Trophy given to the best defenseman in the league; becoming the youngest player to do so since Denis Potvin won at the age of 22 (before he won three consecutive).
What makes Karlsson's offensive output so impressive is that he scored at a torrid rate while NHL scoring was down:
2005-2006: 6.05 GPG
2006-2007: 5.758
2007-2008: 5.44
2008:2009: 5.695
2009-2010: 5.531
2010-2011: 5.464
2011-2012: 5.320 (Playoffs: 4.837; the lowest playoff GPG average since 2003-2004)
The question now becomes not whether or not Karlsson can produce, but whether or not he can sustain this elite level production. He is no longer an unknown name around the NHL and teams will begin to target him to take him off his game. Another big question is whether or not Karlsson can able handle the pressure that comes with a 7 year, $45 million dollar deal.
He averaged 25:19 minutes of ice time per game which placed him 9th overall in the league as a 22 year old. Some of the players he beat out in ice time? Dion Phaneuf (10th), Zdeno Chara (11th), Drew Doughty (12th), Kris Letang (13th), Brent Seabrook (17th), and P.K. Subban (19th) to name a few.
His 28 power play points placed him 7th in the league overall and head of stars such as: Anze Kopitar, Daniel and Henrik Sedin, Steven Stamkos, Jason Spezza, Ryan Suter, and many more.
If Karlsson continues to produce at the rate he did this past season, his $6.5 million cap hit for 7 years will be a steal for the Ottawa Senators.
Mike Green:
Contract: 3 years, $18.25 million (avg of $6.083)
Age: 26
2009-2010 Stats: 75GP - 19G - 57A - 76P
2010-2011 Stats: 49GP - 8G - 16A - 24P
2011-2012 Stats: 32GP - 3G - 4A - 7P
After taking the league by storm in 2008-2009 with his 31(!) goals and 42 assists, Mike Green has experienced some extreme highs and lows. His offensive ability is still as good as anyone else but injuries have bogged down the talented defenseman.
Green's rise to prominence began in 2007-2008 when he scored 56 points at a young age. As a 21 year old he finished 7th in the league in scoring by a defenseman during a year where Niklas Lidstrom contributed 70 points. While Lidstrom was the only defenseman who hit the 70 point mark, Sergei Gonchar, Mark Streit, Brian Campbell and Dion Phaneuf all hit the 60 point mark. Green would just fall short with his 56 points.
The next season would be a completely different story as Green led all defensemen in scoring. His 31 goals and 42 assists shot him up to "star level" in the NHL. After two very impressive seasons, hockey fans were looking forward what else Green would be capable of. At this point in his career, his name was being thrown around in Norris Trophy talks as well.
In 2009-2010 Green did it again and set career highs in assists and points. In 75 games played, Green scored 19 times and added 57 assists. His +39 was also extremely impressive as was his league leading 10 power play goals by a defenseman. The 2009-2010 season marked the third consecutive season where Green's point total increased.
Green's following season was cut short due to injuries. Being limited to 49 games, Green still put up decent numbers (8 goals and 16 assists) but was unable to build off the stellar year before.
This past season (2011-2012) was cut even shorter by injuries. Green only suited up for 32 games, his lowest total since 2005-2006. From concussions to groin problems, Green was getting hurt in just about every way imaginable.
Here are some interesting statistics that should be considered (courtesy of Greg Wyshynski): In just over two seasons, Green scored 149 points in 143 games along with a plus/minus of +63. Then injuries began and he scored 31 points in 81 games split over the next two seasons with a plus/minus of +11.
The big question mark for Green is not whether he can produce, everyone knows he can. It's whether or not he can stay healthy. This is a player who has lit up the NHL just a few short years ago and should be entering his prime. Instead, being hampered by injuries has made his career an even harder up hill climb.
The fact that Washington chose to only re-sign him for three years also shows that they have reservations on his health. The Capitals want to see him be the elite puck moving defenseman he once was and I'm sure Green wants to return to that level as well.
New head coach Adam Oates will hope to be part of the turnaround. Oates was one of the best play makers in NHL history. His offensive awareness is off the charts and should only benefit the play of Green (and Ovechkin too). You can bet if Green stays healthy and Ovechkin rebounds to being a top five point scorer in the NHL, Green will be right there at the top of defenseman scoring.
Conclusion:
While their point production output may be similar (when healthy), Green is clearly battling health issues while Karlsson's biggest threat is himself. Green has proven he can put up elite offensive numbers while Karlsson is coming off his lone "elite" season in his young career. The question then becomes would you rather pay Green the big bucks and hope he can return to form or would you rather pay Karlsson the big bucks and hope he can continue to be an offensive juggernaut.
Karlsson has yet to have a season shortened due to injury while Green has had injury problems over the past couple of seasons. Green faces the same questions that Karlsson faces about his defensive abilities and whether or not he is capable in his own defensive end even though both have made huge strides in that facet of their game.
Maybe Karlsson is the next flashy offensive player until another young player breaks out. Could he just be the flavor of the week? It is possible. Green has been unable to replicate his stellar seasons of the past but a long off season and new work out program could help him get back to form.
I personally would take Karlsson and his contract over Green's and I will explain why:
- What would be easier to believe? Karlsson not replicating his numbers from last year but still putting up solid point totals (60 points?) or Green coming back from two short seasons and remains healthy and scores 50-60 points?
- Karlsson is still making a name for himself. In Green's third season in the NHL he put up 73 points and he still improved on those numbers. Karlsson's play has been improving at an extremely high rate and should he build off his Norris winning season, the sky is the limit for him. He is only 22. Players at his age are only approaching their prime.
- Green is eating up $6 million per season (plus change) but Washington can't be sure if this guy will stay healthy for half the season. If Washington plans to make a run at the cup in the next three years, they need a healthy Mike Green which they might not get.
- Karlsson's average cap hit is $6.5 million while Green's is (roughly) $6 million. If I am going to pay an offensive defenseman that amount of money I will be expecting a significant offensive output. In my opinion, $6 million for a defenseman is high. So I am expecting 50+ points at that price tag. With Green, he may be able to hit 50 points again but the gamble is much higher.
Most people would probably predict Karlsson to be right around the top of the league in scoring by a defenseman again. What I can tell you is that having them both go head to head for the title of best offensive defenseman in the NHL will be much more entertaining than another one man show from either of these players. I personally hope Green recovers and returns to form because watching him and Karlsson quarterback their respective teams will make for much more exciting hockey.
So who would you rather have on your team with that contract and why? Share in the comments!
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