Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Crowded Crease:

When the Vancouver Canucks were down 3-0 in their first round series against the Los Angeles Kings this spring, they were faced with a decision regarding their starting goalie in game four. In games one and two, they went with the obvious choice, Roberto Luongo. However, in game 3 they turned to Cory Schneider.



Their numbers in the 2010-2011 playoffs were nearly identical with Luongo at a 2.56 GAA and a .914 save percentage while Schneider had a 2.58 GAA and a .915 save percentage. This year would be a completely different story.

With everything on the line going into game 4, the Canucks could either return to the veteran after giving the kid a chance or stick with Schneider and keep the $6.7 million goalie in Luongo on the bench. When the team decided to play Schneider in the must win game 4. Many believe it was the beginning of the end of Roberto Luongo's time in Vancouver.


After a Game Four win to stay alive, the Canucks started Schneider again only to be defeated and eliminated by the eighth seeded L.A Kings. Their splits could not have been further apart.  Schneider had an otherworldly 1.31 GAA and a .960 save percentage (!). Luongo? A 3.59 GAA and a .891 save percentage. 

As Roberto Luongo’s play declined, Cory Schneider’s play got that much better. During the team's exit interviews, Luongo made apparent his feelings that he would not be opposed to a trade (to the right team of course). While this summer has been littered with Luongo trade rumors, I believe that it may be more prudent to trade a younger and more attractive asset in Schneider than try and move Roberto's mammoth contract.


In today's article I will be looking at the reasons as to why I believe Vancouver should not trade Roberto Luongo and instead trade Cory Schneider...




The Term:
After four very successful regular seasons in Vancouver, Luongo signed a monster contract before the 2010-2011 NHL season. General Manager Mike Gillis locked up the goalie to the tunes of a 12 year, $64 million contract. Luongo now has 10 years left on his contract.

If he were to play until the end of the contract (and believe me, he never intended on it in the first place), he would be stopping pucks until the nice ripe age of 43 (Who doesn't want a 43 year old goalie with a $5.3 million cap hit!). While no one expects Luongo to play until then, any team that he is traded to is still going to have him under contract for roughly five to six more seasons (give or take).

With Luongo, you have to find a team willing to take on a 10 year contract. That limits the search to teams looking to make the salary floor, teams looking for a goalie and teams willing to handcuff themselves to his no trade clause and lengthy contract.

Schneider is a restricted free agent that needs to be resigned this off season. The promising young goalie will probably be looking for a little bit more term than the entry level contract and the two year deal that subsequently followed. Teams now will not be giving out the 10-12 year deals anymore so look for his contract to be anywhere from three to six years.

With Schneider, Vancouver has options. They can resign him to a deal and then trade him or trade his rights to an inquiring team.

Advantage: Trading Schneider

The Dollar:
Lou, as the Canucks fans call him, is still due roughly $47.3 million. That is a lot of cash. If a team is going to acquire him, they need to be prepared to fork over more money than some players make in a lifetime. Believe it or not, it is actually pretty difficult to trade a contract of that size. If the Canucks do move Luongo, the team receiving him will have to move salary back the other way to Vancouver. That is not the kind of deal they are looking for.

Schneider will be getting a hefty raise from the $900,000 he made this past year. However, when it comes to the amount he will be getting paid he doesn't exactly have the bargaining chips. Up to this date the most games Schneider has played in an NHL season came this year when he suited up for 33. That's not enough of a sample size to be forking over the big bucks.

Everyone knows Schneider will be a great starting goaltender one day in the NHL but he does not have the experience. What this means for him is that the cards will be held by the team negotiating with him.

Advantage: Trading Schneider

Return:
Trading Luongo would fetch a nice return but you can expect a hefty bit of salary coming back to Vancouver in any deal made. The organization has already come out and said that taking salary back is not the deal that they want to make.

Trading Schneider would bring in a far greater return as the team acquiring him would be looking to keep his contract reasonable for them. Trading for the younger unproven Schneider could potentially give Vancouver get enough pieces to get this team over the playoff hump.

An up and coming starting goaltender just about to enter his prime is worth much more than a goalie on the decline with a huge contract.

Advantage: Trading Schneider

Conclusion:
Both goaltenders are great players that will lead their teams to success one day. Luongo was clearly upset that the team would trust Schneider with the starting duties over him in the playoffs. However, I'm sure he would have no problem being given the reins in Vancouver as well. All he needs is the team's faith in him.

On the other hand, Schneider is ready for a starting role. He wants it and by my standards, he's paid his dues. If he's going to be a starting goaltender in the NHL now is his time to do it.

With the points that I've laid out, I believe that trading Schneider is better for Vancouver. Whether they trade him or Luongo remains to be seen. Both goalies want a starting role but that that's a one man job.

With that in mind, If Vancouver wants to improve their team, doing it through a trade where they are dealing from a point of strengths is the way to do it. One of the goalies is expendable and can be parlayed into parts to help this team in areas it sees fit.

Has Luongo made his own bed now by asking for a trade? Or will the team put faith in the guy they locked up for 12 years. Share your thoughts in the comment section!

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