 |
Five for Fighting is a feature where we give two writers a topic and they argue both sides of that argument. The topic in this edition is "Will the Minnesota Wild be Stanley Cup contenders or pretenders this season?"
Obviously, having Parise and Suter on your team immediately makes it better; but is it enough to call the Minnesota Wild a Stanley Cup Contender during the 2012-2013 season? While only time will tell, today we will look at the reasons as to why Minnesota could be considered a Stanley Cup contender.
Read More for an in depth analysis
Forward Core:
Led by Captain Mikko Koivu, the Wild now have one of the deepest offenses in the NHL. Koivu is an interesting player because his offensive production has been spotty throughout his NHL career. When healthy, he has put up 60-70 points. This kind of output would have him at the tail end of top line centers but top line center none the less. Since 2006-2007 Koivu has had three seasons with 45 plus assists and six with 30 plus. While not known for his goalscoring, Koivu has put up more than 11 goals in six of his seven years in the NHL. He scored 20 plus goals three times with his career highest being 22 but hasn't scored more than 17 since 2009-2010.
Zach Parise should be able to help Koivu's point totals with his consistent offensive play. With his injury mired season and rookie campaign being the only exceptions, Parise has put up over 60 points every season. He is a four time 30 goal scorer and also scored 45 in 2008-2009. While in New Jersey, Parise didn't have that elite number 1 center to play with and that will remain the same in Minnesota. However, playing with a legitimate playmaker in Koivu and having more offensive options than in New Jersey should increase his point total. One thing to remember is that while Minnesota still has Dany Heatley, there is no Kovalchuk. Parise will be relied on heavily during the power play and even strength to lead the team offensively and won't have an elite winger like Kovalchuk to help him.
After scoring 31 goals in 2008-2009 Devin Setogouchi's offense has simmered down a bit but he is still good for 20 goals or more. Last year, his first with the Wild, he scored 19 goals and 17 assists for 36 points. It is safe to assume that Minnesota won't be the low scoring team they were this season after the additions to their lineup. Setogouchi should bounce back and have a solid season playing with more offensive players. Look for his production to be around 20 goals and 40-50 points. He will be relied on in a top six role with powerplay time so the increase in point total seems logical.
Dany Heatley may not be the elite sniper he once was but he still scores his fair share of goals. In Ottawa, Heatley scored 50 goals in back to back seasons putting up a career high of 105 points. His trade to San Jose saw Heatley put up a solid 82 point campaign but it has been downhill from there. His points and goal totals have declined every year since 2006-2007 (50, 41, 39, 39, 26 and 24 goal seasons respectively). It is clear that he isn't the same player he once was but with a more offensive minded team it is not hard to believe that he could still return to being a 30 goal scorer. Yes, it is more likely he stays around the same as a 20+ goal guy, but the possibility is there.
In addition to their big four, Minnesota has a great supporting cast that will be able to contribute offensively:
Mikael Granlund: The blue chip prospect that Minnesota Wild fans have been waiting for. He is expected to compete for the second line role this season and definitely has the offensive instincts to achieve that goal. Speaking of his goals, some of you may remember when he scored this. Granlund is going to be a great offensive player for the Wild and could potentially be their number one center once Koivu gets too old to handle that role.
Pierre Marc Bouchard: Even though injuries have mired his career, Bouchard is still a smart offensive player. When he is healthy he can produce. From 2005 to 2008 he had seasons where he scored 59, 57, and 63 points respectively. However in the last three seasons combined he scored only 60 points total. As long as he is healthy he should still be able to contribute on their third line.
Matt Cullen: At 35, Cullen is getting close to the end of his career but has stayed steady in his points department. In his first two seasons with the Wild he scored 39 and 35 points respectively. With the arrival of Granlund it is entirely possible that Cullen gets bumped down to the third line. He is still a solid penalty killer and a good leader for a relatively young team.
Cal Clutterbuck: Everyone knows what Clutterbuck brings to the table and that is hits. Lots and lots of hits. Year after year he is among the top hitters in the league and previously held the NHL record in 2008-2009 for most hits in a season with 356 (that record has since been broken). He will also be counted on to contribute offensively coming off of a year where he scored 15 goals. Clutterbuck is your prototypical third liner with offensive punch.
Torrey Mitchell: Another former Shark (Minnesota has their fair share...Heatley, Setogouchi, Coyle, Mitchell, Ortmeyer. Not including past players like Owen Nolan, etc.), Mitchell played primarily on the third line in San Jose and was a penalty killing specialist. He won't score much for the Wild but he will make sure they get scored on less. A fast player, Mitchell uses his speed to strip the puck from opposition. Although he is a center, he could see time playing on a wing depending on who the Wild use as natural centers and who they move to the wing.
Those players combined with the toughness that Konopka, Kassian, Clutterbuck, Brodziak, Powe and Dowell bring gives the Wild a balanced and tough forward group that will be hard to play against night in and night out.
The future looks bright for the Wild and mainly because years of drafting well will pay off. Down the middle they have Mikael Granlund (who will be pushing for a spot this year) and Zack Phillips who was a member of the 2011 Memorial Cup winning St. John Sea Dogs team and will push for a roster spot after this upcoming season
On the right wing they have top prospect Charlie Coyle who was acquired in the Brent Burns-Devin Setogouchi deal last summer.
Defense:
Even though he has spent the last seven years as Shea Weber's partner, the time is now for Ryan Suter to be the go-to guy in Minnesota. He will come in as the number one defenseman on the team and will be expected to lead their young core. Expect him to lead the penalty kill, power play, and lead the team in minutes played. He has scored over 30 points each year since the 2007-2008 season and is coming off a career year where he tallied 46 points. Suter's goal production should increase as well. Without Weber's booming shot beside him, he will be the one ripping shots from the point.
Tom Gilbert will be next best defenseman on the team. He is coming off his least productive year offensively with only 22 points. Playing along Suter's side would benefit Gilbert as history has shown he is a capable two way defenseman. The 29 year old Minnesota native is expected to contribute more offensively and should be able to hit the 30 point plateau again.
Young defenseman Clayton Stoner will be expected to log heavier minutes in a potential top four role. In the past two seasons he has played 57 and 51 games respectively so the Wild will be hoping he can stay healthier. He is a defensive defenseman so more penalty kill time will also be heading his way.
The Wild also appear to let 22 year old Marco Scandella round out the top four. The offensive defenseman played 63 games last season with Minnesota but his offense did not transfer to the NHL (3G 9A). He is still young so with time and patient coaching he should turn into a reliable offensive defenseman for the Wild.
Another young defenseman, Justin Falk, appears ready for an increased role on the team. He has spent the last few years splitting time with Minnesota and their AHL affiliate, the Houston Aeros. Last season he played 47 games with Minnesota and notched 9 points (1G 8A).
Rounding out the Wild's defense corps is Nate Prosser who played 51 games with the Wild last season. He recorded 12 points (1G 11A) and will be looking to play more games as well as improve on his point total.
In my opinion, Minnesota's defense is their biggest (if not only) question mark heading into the upcoming season. There are just too many inexperienced players that have yet to make an impact at the NHL level. Throwing that many young guys together could be detrimental to their development as they will have the pressure on them night after night. Defense is one position that requires a long time to develop properly and it seems as though the Wild are rushing their defense.
Just to show how young and inexperienced their defense is: Tom Gilbert ($4 mil), Clayton Stoner ($1.05 mil), Marco Scandella ($845,833), Justin Falk ($825,000), and Nate Prosser ($825,000) round out the rest of Minnesota's defense. Ryan Suter's cap hit is $7.538 million next season. The other five defensemen's salaries add up to $7.54 million.
Prospect wise they appear set after drafting D Matt Dumba in the 1st round (7th overall) of this year's NHL Entry Draft. They also have Jonas Brodin, Steven Kampfer and Tyler Cuma waiting for their chance to play with the Wild.
Goaltending:
The Wild will have one of the most reliable goaltending tandems in the league with Niklas Backstrom and Josh Harding. Minnesota's starting goalie for the past five years, Backstrom has been extremely reliable for the Wild (327 GP 2.42 GAA 918 Save % over his career). Since the 2008-2009 season, his games played total has steadily decreased (71, 60, 51, 46 GP respectively) so look for that trend to continue this season. Backstrom will be turning 35 this February so it is safe to expect his GP total to hover around 40 games.
That won't be a problem with the organization as they have Josh Harding ready to play more. At 28 years of age, Harding is ready to handle more games and will have to with the Wild's aging starter. His career numbers are similar to Backstrom (117 GP 2.65 GAA .916%). The only difference is Harding has played much fewer games.
All in all, their goaltending appears set and is poised to be one of their most reliable qualities going into the upcoming season. The Wild also have Matt Hackett waiting in the wings so look for him to get in a few games at the NHL level this season.
Final Thoughts:
While their current forward group appears deeper than most in the NHL, their defense as it stands, appears to be their weakness. It will be hard (nearly impossible) to add to their defense through Free Agency as they only have $1.3 million in cap space remaining.
The most logical solution would be to parlay some of their forward depth for defensive help. Quantity-for-Quality type moves would be very beneficial to them as they would be dealing from a point of strength (forwards).
With the moves the Wild have made this off season, it appears that they are gunning for that Stanley Cup. They have one of the top prospect pools in the entire league and they could, should they choose, trade some of their prospects to get help now.
The Minnesota Wild (on paper) appear set to contend with the Vancouver Canucks for the division title. Whether or not they are Stanley Cup contenders? I'd say give them 1-2 years. Let Granlund solidify himself as a legitimate second line center.
No comments:
Post a Comment