Friday, July 27, 2012

Doan Names his Price:


Shane Doan has been the face of the Phoenix Coyotes since they moved from Winnipeg. He has been their leader on and off the ice and has embraced the Arizona way of life.

As an unrestricted free agent, Doan has the opportunity to sign with just about any team of his choosing.

What is complicating matters is that Doan wants to stay in Phoenix. That is where his home is, where his family has been and where his children go to school. The good news is that the feelings are mutual as the Coyotes want their captain and leader to stay on board.

The bad news is that Phoenix is stuck in financial problems. If reports are correct, Doan wants a lot of money.  Phoenix at this point simply doesn't have the money to keep their captain.

Read more for analysis of Doan's asking price.


Recent tweets by David Shoalts (@dshoalts) speculate that Doan wants $30 million over four years if he leaves Phoenix. Shoalts followed that tweet up with his belief that "there are teams willing to pay Doan $7 million for one year (maybe two) but he'll be 36 by the start of this season so four years is scary".
Shoalts believes (as does his source) that someone will eventually cough up the four year, $30 million contract that Doan is looking for.

Corey Pronman (@coreypronman) brought up an excellent point. Doan's reported contract demands would pay him an average of $7.5 million per season. Not only is that an extremely high asking price, Doan only made $4.55 million last season. That's quite a heft raise for a player who is coming off his lowest point total since 2007. It is not hard to understand why he is still a free agent.

I think Doan is a great person to have on any hockey team. He is a leader in locker room that can mentor young up and coming players. He also scores at a pretty consistent level. In the last 12 seasons (since 2000-2001) Doan has averaged 61 points per season. Those are respectable numbers but by no means are they worth of $7.5 per season.

Here are comparable players that make in the range of $7-$7.5 million per season (courtesy of CapGeek.com):

Jarome Iginla, 35, $7 million
Iginla's 67 points in 2011-2012 marked his lowest totals since 2005-2006. Prior to last season Iginla scored 67, 94, 98, 89, 69 and 86 point seasons.
(81 point average)

Joe Thornton, 33, $7 million
From 2005-2010 Thornton was one of the league leaders in scoring putting up 125, 114, 96, 86, 89 and 70 points respectively . This past season Thornton scored 77 points.
(94 point average)

Alex Semin, 28, $7 million
Since his rookie season (2006-2007) Semin scored 73, 42, 79, 84, and back to back 54 point seasons. (77 point average)

Thomas Vanek, 28, $7.14 million
From 2005-2006 Vanek has put up seasons of 48, 84, 64, 64, 53, 73 and 61 points.
(75 point average)

Steven Stamkos, 22, $7.5 million
From 2008-2009 Stamkos has registered 46, 95, 91, and 97 points respectively. Not counting Stamkos' rookie season, he has averaged 94 points per season.
(82 point average)

Marian Gaborik, 30, $7.5 million
From 2005-2009 Gaborik was a member of the Minnesota Wild and scored 66 points in 65 games, 57 points in 48 games, 83 points in 77 games played, and 23 points in 17 games played. As a member of the New York Rangers, he scored 86 points in 76 games, 48 points in 62 games and 76 points in 82 games. Excluding his injury shortened season in which he was limited to 17 games, his adjusted average is 69 points. Gaborik has 439 points in 427 games.
(63 point average)

Zach Parise, 27, $7.5 million
The former New Jersey Devil scored 32 points in his rookie season followed by seasons where he scored 62, 65, 94, 82 and 69 points respectively.
(67 point average)

As you can see, Doan's 61 point average over his career does not fit with this group of players who all have out produced him. His adjusted average (calculated from 2005 to present day) is still only 62 points per season. While it is closer to Gaborik, something to keep in mind is Gaborik has averaged over a point per game over his career (1.1 points per game). Doan has averaged .794 points per game (437 points in 550 games played since 2005).

Simply put, Doan is asking for too much. Would I personally add him to my team? Absolutely. Would I do so at his desired price tag of $7.5 million per season? Absolutely not.

With the free agent market only getting increasingly thinner, Doan will get his money but it will be interesting to see how the organization that signs him feels about the deal after Doan retires.

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